Shadow Stats: The Alternate to Official Statistics

Here's a great way to uncover some of the -ahem- controversial methodology behind our official government numbers. The alleged motivation? A desire to beguile the masses, lower government payouts to social security (which is tied to inflation) and good old fashioned naivety.

Blogging cult favorite John Williams has a website that shows his reasoning about revising the official figures of inflation and unemployment (among other things).

Read about Mr. Williams and decide for yourself.

There is no shortage of critics of John Williams (just look around). Here's blogging legend Mish discussing Williams's GDP methodology.

What is Google Scholar?

Google Scholar searches the contents of many (but not all) academic journals. However, it does not provide access to the fulltext material. If you are off-campus, you will be prompted to log in or buy the article.

If you follow the Alkek Library link to Google Scholar here, you will have to sign in ONCE with your NET ID and then it's all clear sailing. 



In any case, please don't buy the article - you can get it through us.  If you hit a dead end, use interlibrary loan.

Google Scholar does not search ALL the scholarly literature because some publishers restrict access. 

Impact Factor

The impact factor is a measurement of how influential a journal is.

Researchers use it to determine how important an article might be or whether getting published in the journal carries any weight.

Quoting ISI (originators of the impact factor):

Definition

The JCR provides quantitative tools for ranking, evaluating, categorizing, and comparing journals. The impact factor is one of these; it is a measure of the frequency with which the "average article" in a journal has been cited in a particular year or period. The annual JCR impact factor is a ratio between citations and recent citable items published. Thus, the impact factor of a journal is calculated by dividing the number of current year citations to the source items published in that journal during the previous two years

Here is the detailed explanation from the impact factor people, Thomson Reuters/ISI themselves.


At Alkek Library:

Here's how you get the impact factor.


Go to an ISI Citation Analysis database (different ones for different disciplines).


After you find a citation, look over to the right.




Which then takes you to this screen.

What's Inside America's Banks?

Great article from The Atlantic summarizing the sad situation that US banks are able to conceal the true state of their financial health through legal loopholes. 

Article starts with a broad summary then gets good and wonky (we like that!)

Good quote: “Investors can’t truly understand the nature and quality of the assets and liabilities. They can’t readily assess the reliability of the capital to offset real losses. They can’t assess the underlying sources of the firms’ profits. The disclosure obfuscates more than it informs, and the government is not just permitting it but seems to be encouraging it.”

Check it out. 

Book Review: The Creature From Jekyll Island

 

Link to Our Copy of The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve

Just what is the Federal Reserve? It's actually a privately controlled system of private banks that decides the nation's money supply and interest rates, among other functions. As America continues to monetize its debt and flirt with a currency crisis, profound questions about who is doing this and why should be asked.

The author introduces the reader to the banking cabal that conjures our privately controlled money supply out of thin air (so far, so good). He then tries to push a paranoid, conspiratorial view of history in which mainstreet USA is being attacked by well-organized enemies. This elite is a true witches' brew: it's capitalist, feudalist, communist, socialist, atheist, and based in Europe and New York City.

Actual wonky details of the operations of the financial system, an intelligent discussion of why people might want a central bank (even if you disagree), and actual proof for multiple assertions are lacking in the book.

I can't really recommend this book. It's a poorly researched, simple-minded, nativist vision of the world for people that don't want real details - just a confirmation of their prejudices and beliefs.

I hope this is not your only introduction to the Federal Reserve.

However, I would recommend this book on the history of money, as well as my review on the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises if you want to understand a little more about money.

What is Chained CPI?

What is chained CPI (Consumer Price Index)?

Well, it is a proposed difference in how we measure inflation and cost of living - which has implications for social security payments and probably a lot more real world stuff. 

Economists assume that when prices rise on a product, people turn to a less expensive alternative. Substitute chicken for beef, for example. In the past, the rise in beef prices would be counted as inflation.

Under chained CPI they wouldn't be. The reasoning is that lower cost alternatives are available so inflation won't affect you. 

Translation: Since you cannot afford to buy it, there is no inflation. 

Here's a very detailed article from the National Journal.

Here's a summary from the Washington Post.

Tax Incentives for Large Corporations in Texas

Here's an article that details the tax incentives/corporate giveaways (depends on your perspective) to such companies as Amazon, Apple, and Samsung in Texas.

Texas has produced a lot of jobs, but they are not high quality, high paying jobs (which can disappear at a moments' notice). State infrastructure is also not growing along with population growth, implying that tax revenues are inadequate.

So the question for you is: is this is worthwhile tradeoff?