Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Why the Next Keynes is Unlikely to Have a PhD

Interview with British economist John Kay, in which he states that the next Keynes is unlikely to have a PhD.

One of the great emerging narratives of the financial crisis, was how unprepared mainstream economics was to intellectually grapple with the crisis.  In fact, many would suggest that it remains so. This is the age of double down, not experimentation, new thinking and reform.

Kay’s message for actuaries is that we should distrust our models – what is not in our models is often more important than what is. And we should develop narratives of what might happen rather than relying on spuriously accurate mathematical projections based on past experience. Equally, we should not blindly follow methodologies implied by financial economics - See more at: http://www.theactuary.com/features/2013/04/the-mild-mannered-prophet-of-doom/#sthash.TYTIGras.dpuf
Kay’s message for actuaries is that we should distrust our models – what is not in our models is often more important than what is. And we should develop narratives of what might happen rather than relying on spuriously accurate mathematical projections based on past experience. Equally, we should not blindly follow methodologies implied by financial economics - See more at: http://www.theactuary.com/features/2013/04/the-mild-mannered-prophet-of-doom/#sthash.TYTIGras.dpuf

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